Who Is Winning the Election? 2025 Irish Results & Polls

Why does a presidential election result that’s already official still leave people searching ‘who is winning the election’? Because while Catherine Connolly’s victory on 25 October 2025 was decisive, the real-time race for the next general election keeps the question alive. Here’s what the numbers say — from the final tally to the latest Red C poll.

Presidential election date: 25 October 2025 ·
Winner (first preference votes): Catherine Connolly (63.4%) ·
Runner-up (first preference votes): Heather Humphreys (29.5%) ·
Total votes cast for winner: 914,143 ·
Number of candidates: 3

The official count provides a clear breakdown of the presidential result.

Comparing pre-election polls with the final result reveals how polling tracked the actual outcome.

Who won the Irish presidential election 2025?

The 2025 Irish presidential election had a clear winner on the night of 25 October. Catherine Connolly, running as an Independent, secured 914,143 first preference votes — a commanding 63.36% share. Heather Humphreys of Fine Gael came second with 424,987 votes (29.46%), and Jim Gavin also ran as an Independent.

What was the final vote count for each candidate?

• Catherine Connolly: 914,143 first preference votes (63.36%) — source: official tally
• Heather Humphreys: 424,987 first preference votes (29.46%) — same official tally
• Jim Gavin: received votes despite withdrawing late in the campaign; a Red C poll had shown him at 12% before withdrawal (same RTÉ report)

This result settles the presidential race, but the broader political landscape remains dynamic.

What are the latest opinion polls in Ireland?

While the presidency is decided, attention has shifted to the next general election, expected by 2026. The most recent publicly available polling dataset for Ireland comes from Red C Research, conducted on behalf of the Business Post in early October 2025.

What does the Red C poll show today?

Red C’s poll of 1,001 adults (fieldwork 2–7 October 2025) captured voter sentiment just weeks before the presidential vote. Key findings include:

• Catherine Connolly at 36% support for president — same RTÉ report
• Heather Humphreys at 25% — same RTÉ report
• 27% of voters undecided — same RTÉ report
• After redistributing Jim Gavin’s preferences (he had withdrawn), Connolly rose to 39%, Humphreys to 31% — same RTÉ report
• Margin of error ±3% — same RTÉ report

A separate poll from Anadolu Agency (international wire service) reportedly showed Humphreys ahead, but that data has low confidence and conflicts with every other available source.

The pattern is clear: presidential popularity does not automatically translate into party support.

Who is winning the election right now according to polls?

This is where the answer depends on which election you mean. For the 2025 presidency, the winner is known. For the 2026 general election, the race is wide open.

How do the 2025 presidential results compare to 2026 general election polling?

The presidential outcome is a landside for an Independent. General election polls, however, track party support — and here Sinn Féin, Fine Gael, and Fianna Fáil are the main players. The Red C poll focused on the presidential race, not party preference, though it did note that Connolly’s Independent run drew support from across party lines. For current general election standings, polling aggregators like Politico Europe (poll of polls) offer monthly updates.

The implication: Connolly’s dominant win does not necessarily transfer to any party. The next election will be fought on government performance, not the presidency.

What were the official election results for Ireland?

Verified official results come from three government sources. The 2025 presidential election data is published at presidentialelection.ie (Irish government official results). National broadcaster RTÉ News carried live results. For Dáil and Seanad elections, the official source is Oireachtas.ie (Irish parliament elections portal).

Where can I find verified presidential election results?

The official site remains the gold standard. It lists Connolly’s 914,143 first preference votes (63.36%) and Humphreys’ 424,987 (29.46%) — all figures directly from the returning officer.

This outcome confirms that the presidency question is fully answered.

Who were the candidates in the 2025 Irish presidential election?

Three candidates stood for the presidency. Two were women nominated by political parties or by themselves as Independents; one man also ran but withdrew before polling day.

What were the backgrounds of Connolly, Humphreys, and Gavin?

• Catherine Connolly (Independent): A long‑time independent politician and former TD for Galway West. Her campaign focused on transparency and climate action.
• Heather Humphreys (Fine Gael): The Minister for Social Protection and a Fine Gael TD for Cavan-Monaghan. She represented the government party in the race.
• Jim Gavin (Independent): A businessman who withdrew on 5 October 2025, but his name remained on the ballot. His late exit likely affected polling dynamics (same RTÉ report).

The catch is that polling uncertainty may persist into the general election cycle.

For more election analysis, see our coverage of the 2025 German election and our guide to newspaper history.

The 2025 presidential election is finished. Catherine Connolly won decisively. But the query “who is winning the election” lives on because the general election campaign for 2026 has already begun. For Irish voters tracking party support, the next Red C poll — expected in the coming months — will be the real clue. For Sinn Féin, Fine Gael, and Fianna Fáil, the question is how to convert Connolly’s personal mandate into party momentum. The answer, for now, is that nobody is yet winning that race.